Upcoming Elections

In an earlier post I wrote that there was a run-off in the county, noted that only those who had voted in the Republican primary and those who had not voted could vote in the August 5th election. I was not thinking about the state-wide elections, only the county elections. Democrats can vote on the state-wide run-off between Vernon Jones and Jim Martin. However, those who pulled a Democratic ballot on July 15th can NOT pull a Republican ballot to vote in the local election. Sorry for the confusion... I'll make it a little bit more confusing... If you are a Democrat and didn't vote on July 15th, you CAN pull a Republican ballot in the run-off and vote in the local elections. Course, you may want to pull a Democratic ballot and weigh in on the Jones vs Martin run-off instead.

I've always felt that local elections were much more important than the national elections if a choice had to be made. The local guys are the ones who decide what your taxes will be, they put up billboards or stop them, they let developers have their way or not... the school board makes decisions that affect your children and your taxes... the sheriff... the tax commissioner... the judges... these folks have much more impact on you than a state senator or U.S. Senator who's one of a large group usually walking hand-in-hand with their party.

It amazes me that we can have a 26% turnout for a primary and yet in November everyone will come out to vote for the President. Yes, it's important to vote in November, but I'd argue that it is more important to vote in July. But that's just me. Obviously the majority of voters think differently based on the percentage turnout in summer-time elections.

Delegate dilemma

The longer I watch the more confusing the counting of delegates becomes.

I'll have to confess that as much as I think I know about the political process and as involved as I have been in past elections, I had no idea how the selection of our President actually worked.

Now, after studying it and becoming completely immersed in the "process" I still have no idea.

It makes absolutely no sense. It makes even less sense this year with all the slashing-of-delegate punishments that were handed out by the Democratic and Republican national parties to various states.

Crazy is the word that comes to mind when I think of how delegates are accrued.

In some states they have a caucus, which simply means that people trudge to the polls and their votes are counted by raising hands or something along those lines. It can be an all day or multi-day process.

Some states combine a caucus on one day, handing out a portion of the delegates based on the vote, then a primary vote on another to divvy out the remainder of the votes.

Even when it's a primary vote open to all the delegates are whacky. A portion of the delegates are divided up based on the votes. Then in some states there are super delegates who work independently of the will of the voting public. There are uncommitted delegates and those who commit to a candidate in caucus and primary states.

Some states divide up the delegates based on the percentage of the votes each candidate wins. Some states have a winner-take-all system, which means if candidate A wins 43% of the vote and candidate B wins 42%, candidate A gets them all.

In one state the winner has to reach 50% to win all the delegates. If no one reaches the 50% mark then the delegates aren't awarded. All of the delegates go to the national convention uncommitted.

The Democrats have some strange rules, too, but they seem to be a little less confusing as all are pretty much divided up proportionately. However, in some states the winner can end up with fewer delegates due to special delegates that aren't controlled by the vote.

Not to make it even harder to figure out, but... in some states even though the candidate wins the delegates, those delegates can change their mind when they get to the convention.

If you go to CNN, Fox News and other places where they're keeping up with delegates you'll probably find that they all have different totals. On CNN they have one page with delegates and when you click the link for details the numbers are completely different (or at least they were a week or so ago).

Making it stranger than the normal strange this year is the upcoming battle over the Democrat delegates in Michigan and Florida. The Democratic national party stripped both states of their delegates because they moved their primary vote earlier than Feb. 5th. Candidates were banned from campaigning in Florida until after the election.

However, Democrats turned out to vote. Clinton won both states. Easier in Michigan since she and maybe Gravel and one other little-known candidate long since dropped out, were the only ones on the ballot. No one else paid the fee to get listed.

What happens to those votes? Disenfranchised. Their vote currently doesn't count. Is the Democratic Party going to select their nominee without the input from these two huge states? I think not!

If they allow the votes to count then is it fair to the candidates who skipped the state because of their Party's rules? Or should they be divided up proportionately giving Clinton an edge?

The Republicans cut the number of delegates allotted in half for some of the states that backed up their primary. Yet, if they held a caucus, those votes counted (not a primary, different set of rules!). Thus some states, to try and "matter" in the process, held an early caucus handing out a portion of their delegates and held back the remainder for their later primary vote.

The Democrats also cut some states' delegates in half.

Somehow someone is going to bang the gong at some point and say that a candidate in each party has reached the magic number of delegates needed to be the nominee. How will they know? Your guess is as good as mine. I'm still trying to understand how Georgia divides its delegates.

Thoughts on Huckabee & Obama's win in Iowa

There's a lot of hype about the pair that took Iowa. On the Democratic side Obama was a clear winner, Edwards followed with Clinton in a technical tie in regards to delegates, although she's a percentage point behind Edwards.

On the Republican side it was Huckabee. Then, with a wider margin that most thought there would be between top and second, came Romney. Behind that duo McCain and Thompson are still battling for 3rd place. As I type they're both at 13%.

Iowa is one state. New Hampshire is right around the corner and the outcome there could throw all of tonight's results out the window.

I think it's a little clearer on the Democratic side. There are really only three contenders. Dodd dropped out tonight. Richardson only had 2% of the vote and of course everyone is speculating that he'll follow Dodd's lead and bow out soon. Clinton put on a good face tonight but Obama is gaining steam. I heard the breakdown of the voters earlier. Clinton is pulling the older vote, Obama is grabbing the younger voters. Both had about the same percentage of women who voted, which could be partially due to the Oprah factor. Who knows.

If the outcome stays the same in New Hampshire Obama could take all.

On the Republican side it's still in complete flux.

I really like Huckabee as a person. When he was here late last year I had the opportunity to talk with him, do an interview. I did an short interview with Huckabee after doing one with his wife, Janet. After talking with them we went into a private meeting with maybe 30 or so people. We ate lunch, then Huckabee answered questions and talked with everyone. I wouldn't have a problem if Huckabee won.

There are things I like about all the candidates. There are things I dislike. I'm like many who're watching the race as it develops ---- I couldn't tell you who I'm going to vote for on February 7th (Georgia) yet.

The field will probably be a little narrower, or at least the choices may be a little clearer, by the time we head to the polls next month. There's no telling on the Republican side who will be in the top three at this point.

Giuliani is concentrating on states that won't come into play until later in the process. He's banking on Florida and other states to put him back in contention for the top spot.

Iowa helped McCain. It helped Thompson. Huckabee's win took some of the wind out of Romney's sails. The money Romney spent in Iowa didn't put much of a dent in his pocketbook though. Yes, he spent a lot, but he's got a lot more at his disposal.

If McCain takes New Hampshire or comes in a strong second then it's all topsy-turvy in the race again. If Romney takes a few states, Huckabee takes a few more, Giuliani takes some, Thompson takes some then the Republican nominee could win in a squeaker.

Some say that not having a clear choice on the Republican side shows the party is in trouble, that it shows the weakness of the candidates. I think it shows the strength of the GOP. We have so many good candidates it's difficult to choose.

For political junkies tonight was more exciting than a NASCAR race! The future of our country is up for grabs. There are strong views being espoused on both sides. There are sharp divisions within the two parties.

If you're not registered to vote, it's time. Get involved, start keeping up with the elections. The deadline to register for the Feb. 7th Presidential Primary in Georgia is Monday, January 5th.

I think I'm really tired and I'm heading to bed.... after I take one more look at the latest Iowa numbers.

Voter Registration for Presidential Primary is January 7th

The last day to register for an election in Georiga is thirty days prior to an election day. If you're planning to vote in the Presidential Preference Primary on February 5th the deadline to register to vote is Monday, January 7th.

This is an extremely important election for Georgia and for the entire country. It's easy to register. If you need help finding where to go, how to do it, etc. zap a comment and I'll put up some info for everyone.